Why This Matters

Interest rates are the price of money — and every currency pair is really a bet on which central bank is paying more for it. When a bank hikes, holds, or cuts, or even just shifts its tone, global capital repositions to chase the better return, and that flow is what moves the pair on your chart.

The rate decision itself is only half the story. Every one of these eight banks also publishes a quarterly forecast document — the Fed's dot plot (Summary of Economic Projections), the ECB's staff macroeconomic projections, and the monetary policy reports most other central banks release alongside their decisions. That's where the real forward guidance lives — growth and inflation projections, the balance of risks, hints at what the committee does next — and it's often what moves markets days or weeks before the next headline decision even lands.

Understanding monetary policy is part of the job of being a trader — it's not background reading, it's fundamental to your edge. Knowing what a bank has already signalled, and what the market is pricing in, is what lets you form a view ahead of the next decision instead of reacting to the headline after it's already moved the pair. Combine that with the COT Report and Seasonal Bias, and it becomes a real directional edge, not a guess.

Eight Major Banks
BoE
Bank of England
Hawkish
RBA
Reserve Bank of Australia
Neutral
BoC
Bank of Canada
Neutral
RBNZ
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Hawkish
SNB
Swiss National Bank
Neutral
BoJ
Bank of Japan
Hawkish
ECB
European Central Bank
Hawkish
Fed
Federal Reserve (FOMC)
Hawkish
Upcoming Meetings
SNB
Sep 25, 2026
Quarterly policy assessment
RBA
Sep 28–29, 2026
Rate decision
Bank of Canada
Oct 28, 2026
Rate decision + Monetary Policy Report
RBNZ
Oct 28, 2026
Interim Monetary Policy Review
Fed (FOMC)
Oct 28–29, 2026
Rate decision (no SEP due)
ECB
Oct 29, 2026
Rate decision + Lagarde presser
Bank of Japan
Oct 29–30, 2026
Rate decision + Outlook Report
Bank of England
Nov 5, 2026
MPC vote + Monetary Policy Report
Latest Policy Summaries
🇬🇧
Bank of England
September 2026
Hawkish
Rate Decision
3.75%
— Held (6th consecutive, 6–3 vote)
Tone
Hawkish hold. Same 6-3 split as July — Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill again voted for an immediate rise to 4.00%. Inflation ticked up to 3.1% and the Bank still expects it to climb further toward the 3.2% Q4 peak. Minutes flagged it's not appropriate to wait too long for evidence of second-round effects before responding.
Bias Implication
GBP bullish. Same three hawks dissenting for a third straight meeting keeps the hike case alive. No fresh forecasts this round — November is a forecast-round meeting with a new Monetary Policy Report, and will have both the September inflation print and another labour market release to judge whether the energy shock is broadening into services and wages. Favour GBP against CAD and EUR.
Next Meeting
5 Nov 2026 — MPC vote + new Monetary Policy Report + press conference. This is where the case for a rise to 4.00% genuinely gets tested, per the Bank's own framing.
🇦🇺
Reserve Bank of Australia
August 2026
Neutral
Rate Decision
4.35%
— Held (2nd consecutive)
Tone
Neutral — hawkish words, softer data. Second straight hold after three hikes earlier in 2026 took the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35%. Governor Bullock said the board "remains concerned" about the inflation outlook and wants more progress before easing. The quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy trimmed its trimmed-mean inflation forecast to 3.3% (from 3.5%), but revised unemployment up to 4.5% by December.
Bias Implication
AUD neutral. Major banks now think the tightening cycle is over, but the RBA isn't confirming that outright, so there's no clear catalyst for AUD strength from here. Watch labour market data and the Q3 CPI print ahead of the next meeting.
Next Meeting
28–29 Sep 2026 — Rate decision. No SoMP due this meeting (next one is November). Market pricing points to another hold barring a CPI surprise.
🇨🇦
Bank of Canada
September 2026
Neutral
Rate Decision
2.25%
— Held (7th consecutive)
Tone
Neutral — hawkish risk flags. Governing Council flagged stronger upside risks to inflation from the ongoing Middle East conflict (elevated energy prices) and newly reintroduced US tariffs plus Canadian counter-tariffs after trade talks broke down. CPI running near 3%, but ex-gasoline inflation is 2.2% and core measures remain close to 2% — no broad pass-through yet.
Bias Implication
CAD neutral. The Bank explicitly says the uncertain outlook prevents any clear policy signal for the rest of 2026. Big Canadian banks are split on what's next — BMO, CIBC, RBC and TD see holds through year-end, while National Bank and Scotiabank call for hikes to 2.50% (Oct) and 2.75% (Dec).
Next Meeting
28 Oct 2026 — Rate decision + Monetary Policy Report. Trade war escalation or de-escalation with the US is the single biggest swing factor between now and then.
🇳🇿
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
September 2026
Hawkish
Rate Decision
2.75%
▲ Hiked 25 bps
Tone
Hawkish, but signalling a pause. Third consecutive hike, this time by committee consensus rather than the knife-edge 3-3 split that needed Governor Breman's deciding vote in July. Headline inflation ran hot at 4.1% for the year to June, largely fuel-price driven. RBNZ says the future OCR path is "not predetermined" and will depend on incoming data.
Bias Implication
NZD bullish. RBNZ's own OCR forecasts imply a pause at the October review before a further hike to 3% in December — if the projections hold. Favour NZD strength against USD and EUR, but expect less momentum than earlier in the cycle if October brings a hold.
Next Meeting
28 Oct 2026 — Interim Monetary Policy Review. RBNZ's own track implies a pause here, with the next full Monetary Policy Statement due 9 Dec 2026.
🇨🇭
Swiss National Bank
June 2026
Neutral
Rate Decision
0.00%
— Held (2nd consecutive)
Tone
Neutral. CPI at 0.5% year-on-year in June, comfortably within the 0-2% target band. Franc appreciation pressure that flared when the Middle East conflict broke out has actually eased since March, as other major banks (Fed, BoE, BoJ) tightened and widened the rate gap against Switzerland's near-zero rate. SNB judges monetary conditions as looser than in March.
Bias Implication
CHF neutral, mildly weaker bias. SNB softened its intervention language from a firm stance to "if necessary" — a real shift given how central FX intervention is to its toolkit. No urgency to move either way at 0%. Chairman Schlegel has downplayed negative rates given their "undesirable side effects," making a cut unlikely barring a shock.
Next Meeting
25 Sep 2026 — Quarterly Monetary Policy Assessment + updated conditional inflation forecast. A Reuters poll of 41 economists found all but one expecting a hold at 0%.
🇯🇵
Bank of Japan
September 2026
Hawkish
Rate Decision
1.25%
▲ Hiked 25 bps (7–2 vote)
Tone
Hawkish. 31-year high, and the fastest pace of this cycle — just 3 months since June's hike versus 6 months before. Dissenters flipped: this time it's Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, reflationist board members appointed by PM Takaichi, voting to hold — a reversal from July's pattern where the lone dissenter (Takata) pushed for a bigger hike. Comes amid explicit US pressure (Treasury Secretary Bessent urged "decisive" steps at the G20) and two days after the Fed's own hike.
Bias Implication
JPY bullish, but muted. USD/JPY has already pulled back to the mid-150s from the ¥163–165 highs seen in July/August, so this hike was largely priced in — the real catalyst is Ueda's press conference tone. He reiterated hikes continue if data supports it, while flagging growth may moderate on a global trade slowdown. Analyst consensus sees the terminal rate at 1.75%+, with 1.5% pencilled in by end-March 2027.
Next Meeting
29–30 Oct 2026 — Policy rate + updated Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices. With the board's hawkish wing now holding a 7-2 majority, a follow-through hike is plausible if inflation and wage data keep cooperating.
🇪🇺
European Central Bank
September 2026
Hawkish
Rate Decision
2.50%
▲ Hiked 25 bps (unanimous)
Tone
Hawkish surprise. Second hike since the Middle East conflict began (June was the first, July a pause). Lagarde called it a unanimous "no-brainer" and left the door wide open for more. Press release stated inflation "is set to remain well above target for an extended period." Eurozone CPI hit 3.3% in August, a three-year high.
Bias Implication
EUR bullish. Growth forecasts upgraded (0.9% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027) alongside higher inflation forecasts for 2027–28 — a genuinely hawkish combination. 2Y EUR swap rates jumped ~15bp on the announcement, flattening the curve. Favour EUR strength against USD and CAD.
Next Meeting
29 Oct 2026 — Rate decision + Lagarde presser. Markets are pricing further tightening into 2027; watch gas storage levels and trade-tension headlines, both flagged by Lagarde as the key upside risks.
🇺🇸
Federal Reserve (FOMC)
September 2026
Hawkish
Rate Decision
3.75–4.00%
▲ Hiked 25 bps (unanimous)
Tone
Hawkish. First hike since 2023, delivered unanimously — the three July dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) got the move they wanted, so no dissent was needed this time. Comes despite open pressure from Trump to cut. The dot plot revised the whole path higher, not just this year: median fed funds rate 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027 (up from June's 3.8%/3.6%), with core PCE inflation seen at 3.4% this year. Warsh justified the move by saying financial conditions weren't yet "restrictive" — so this simply removed a dose of accommodation rather than marking a shift to outright tightening. Equities gave back early gains as he spoke, stressing this summer's data doesn't show underlying inflation improving.
Bias Implication
USD bullish. A unanimous vote plus a multi-year dot plot revised higher — not just a one-off, fully-priced hike — is a genuinely hawkish combination. Warsh also flagged that most advanced economies (per his G20/Basel meetings) are facing similar price pressures, consistent with the wider synchronized hiking picture across the ECB and RBNZ this cycle. Watch December for the next likely 25bp move consistent with the 4.1% year-end median.
Next Meeting
28–29 Oct 2026 — Rate decision. No SEP due this round (next dot plot is December). A further hike in December is the base case per the September dots if incoming data cooperates.