Historical monthly price action bias calculated from real D1 data (2016–2026). Use as a directional confluence layer alongside COT data and central bank bias — not as a standalone entry signal.
A quick visual summary of that month's historical tendency. ▲▲ Strong Bull means the month has closed bullish the large majority of the time. ▼▼ Strong Bear means the opposite. It is derived directly from the win rate — it is a summary, not a signal.
The percentage of years that month closed higher than it opened. A 70% win rate means 7 out of the last 10 years were bullish for that month. It says nothing about what this year will do — markets don't follow patterns on demand.
The average pip movement across all years for that month. A positive number means the average close was above the average open. This includes both bullish and bearish years — a large positive average can still have losing years within it.
Why this matters: seasonality tells you what has tended to happen historically. Use it as one layer of confluence, something that should support a bias you have already begun to build from COT positioning and central bank direction, not something you trade on its own.
When the layers disagree, seasonality is telling you to be careful. Reduce your size, wait for a cleaner setup, or stand aside entirely rather than force a trade against the seasonal grain.
When the layers agree, seasonality is telling you something else too: not just whether to take the trade, but how far it might reasonably run. A month, or a run of months, with a strong historical tendency usually reflects a slow, multi week or multi month flow rather than a single session's noise. Take a pair where one currency has tended to bottom seasonally around a certain time of year and strengthen steadily for months afterwards; if your COT and central bank bias already agree with that direction, it can be a reason to hold for a much larger target than usual, rather than closing out at the first small profit and missing the bulk of the move.
Never trade seasonality alone. But when it lines up with your other layers, let it shape not just whether you enter, but how patiently you stay in the trade once you are in it.